What I think will happen
These four points are convictions, not measurements. They are dated, and I will correct them publicly if the facts prove me wrong.
AI traffic will rise, search traffic will fall. Not a sudden switch, but a steady erosion on the search engine side and steady growth on the assistant side. The volumes will not cross for a long time, and that is not the point: what matters is the direction of both curves.
There will be clear winners and clear losers, and few people in between. This is the point I think is most underestimated. A results page spreads visibility across ten players. An AI answer cites three. The concentration is mechanical: brands that settle into these answers will gain a lot, and those that are absent will not lose a little, they will drop out of the conversation.
Visits from AI platforms arrive with a more advanced intent. The user has already got their explanation, compared options and ruled out candidates. When they click, they are no longer discovering, they are checking. Lower-volume traffic can therefore be worth more than higher-volume search traffic.
GEO will gradually move away from SEO. The shared 80% will shrink. The more conversational interfaces become autonomous, the more the mechanics diverge, and the more the skills separate. I think many of those who call it bullshit today will change their minds within two years, without necessarily saying so.