What I think is going to happen
These four points are convictions, not measurements. They are dated, and I will correct them publicly if the facts prove me wrong.
AI traffic will rise, search traffic will fall. Not through a sudden switch, but through continuous erosion on the search side and steady growth on the assistant side. The volumes will not cross for a long time, and that is not the question: what matters is the direction of both curves.
There will be clear winners and clear losers, and few brands in between. This is the point I believe is most underestimated. A results page distributes visibility to ten players. An AI answer cites three. The concentration is mechanical: brands that settle into those answers will gain a great deal, and those that are not there will not lose a little, they will disappear from the conversation.
Visits coming from AI platforms arrive with a more advanced intent. The user has already got their explanation, compared options, ruled candidates out. When they click, they are no longer discovering, they are verifying. Lower traffic in volume can therefore be worth more than larger search traffic.
GEO will progressively drift away from SEO. The 80% overlap will shrink. The more conversational interfaces become autonomous, the more the mechanics diverge, and the more the skills separate. I think many of those calling it bullshit today will change their position within two years, without necessarily saying so.